Mass movement hazard map for the Province of Tucumán facing different scenarios of climatic change

Acta geológica 24 (1-2): 2012

Abstract

The province of Tucumán, located in Northwestern Argentina, has a subhumid to arid subtropical climate and a complex topographic and environmental configuration due to its geologic and geomorphologic features: an abrupt landscape and a seasonally contrasted climate with intense summer storms mainly on the transition between slopes and foothills. The natural vegetation cover and agricultural production are controlled by the orographic and climatic conditions. The high population density and the intense productive activities justify environmental studies such as the present research, considering the severe environmental degradation and high susceptibility. The classification of mass movement hazard under current and future scenarios allowed to obtain a preliminary small scale valuation of the present situations affected by these types of processes and to detect the areas with higher susceptibility under future scenarios of dry or humid conditions. In this way, it is possible to focus further detailed studies, determining intensity, frequency and probability of the phenomena. This thematic cartography and modeling could be used as a basis for developing early alert programs and damage mitigation actions.