Predictions on climate change geoenvironmental risks in Tucumán and its application in preventive actions of adaptation

Acta geológica 24(1-2) : 2012

Abstract

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Uncertainty on the future regional effects of climate change is an obstacle for its planning. The International Panel of Climate Change establish the probability of a global increase in temperature between 1,5ºC and 6,5ºC for the present century, with marked spatial dispersion. In Tucumán, the predictive models based on paleoclimatic periodicity have determined two extreme scenarios: one of more humid conditions, and another one of marked aridity. In each scenario, type and intensity of different risks are evaluated in each geomorphological unit. By means of two matrixes, the impact of flooding, siltation, rainfall erosion, land sliding, water table rise, etc. under humid conditions, and fresh water shortage, soil salinization, wind erosion, frost increase, under dry conditions are evaluated. The «prevention» as well as «precautionary» principles guide Public Administration in order to adopt measures of: a) prediction, b)prevention, c) planning, and d) intervention, considering at least two lines of action: a possible scenario of humid conditions, and one of arid conditions.